一 | TYRE, Lebanon -- More than 4,200 people have been displaced from villages in south Lebanon by clashes on the border with Israel, and local officials said Friday that they are ill-prepared for the much larger exodus that would ensue if the the limited conflict escalates to an all-out war.Some 1,500 of the displaced are staying in three schools in the coastal city of Tyre, about 20 kilometers (12 miles) north of the border.As children ran through the courtyard and women hung out clothes to dry on chairs at one of those schools on Friday, Mortada Mhanna, head of the disaster management unit of the municipalities in the Tyre area, said hundreds of newly displaced people are arriving each day. Some move on to stay with relatives or rent apartments, but others have no place to go besides the makeshift shelter, while Lebanon's cash-strapped government has few resources to offer.“We can make the decision to open a new school (as a shelter), but if the resources are not secured, we’ll have a problem,” Mhanna said. He appealed to international organizations to "give us enough supplies that if the situation evolves, we can at least give people a mattress to sleep on and a blanket.”The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and allied Palestinian groups in Lebanon have launched daily missile strikes on northern Israel since the outbreak of the latest Israel-Hamas war on Oct. 7, while Israel has responded by shelling border areas in south Lebanon. To date, the clashes have killed at least 22 people in Lebanon, four of them civilians.Sporadic skirmishes continued Friday while a number of airlines canceled flights to Beirut. Countries including the United States, Saudi Arabia and Germany have warned their citizens to leave Lebanon.For many of the displaced, the current tensions bring back memories of the brutal one-month war between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006, during which Israeli bombing leveled large swathes of the villages in south Lebanon and in Beirut's southern suburbs.The tactic of overwhelming force to strike civilian infrastructure as a measure of military deterrence was dubbed the “Dahiyeh Doctrine,” named after the area south of the capital that was targeted.Should another full-blown war erupt between Hezbollah and Israel, “even the city of Tyre will no longer be safe ... because all of the south was subject to bombing” in 2006, Mhanna said.Among the school's temporary residents is Mustafa Tahini, whose house in the border town of Aita al Shaab was destroyed in 2006, along with most of the village. Back then, aid flowed into Lebanon from Qatar and other countries for reconstruction, but this time, Tahini said, “God knows if someone will come to help us.”“I am not a political analyst. I hope things will calm down, but the things you see in the news aren't reassuring,” said Tahini, whose wife and children are staying with relatives in Beirut while he remains closer to home. Still, he said, he is mentally prepared for another war. “We've been through it before.”Sixty-two-year old Nasmieh Srour from the town of Duhaira has been staying in the school with her husband and two daughters for a week, along with many of the village's residents. Like Tahini, she was displaced in 2006; she is also stoic about the prospects of a wider conflict.“Maybe it will get bigger, maybe it will calm down - there’s no way to know," Srour said. Should the displacement become protracted, said Edouard Beigbeder the representative in Lebanon of UNICEF, the U.N. agency for children, said education will be one of the main casualties. Already 52 of the 300 schools in south Lebanon are closed due to the hostilities, leaving more than 8,000 children out of education in addition to those enrolled in the schools that are now being used as shelters, he said. A wider conflict would also threaten key infrastructure including electric supplies and, by extension, water supplies.“In any escalation," Beigbeder said, “it is the most vulnerable and the children who are (left) in dire situation.”。 8月24日下午，中央气象台等部门多预警齐发，这些地区注意做好防范应对。 台风预警 中央气象台8月24日18时发布台风黄色预警：今年第19号台风“紫檀”(热带风暴级)的中心今天下午5点钟位于广西北海市西南方向约265公里的北部湾海面上，北纬19.8度、东经107.3度，中心附近最大风力有9级(23米/秒)，中心最低气压为990百帕，七级风圈半径100-150公里。 预计，“紫檀”将先在北部湾海面回旋少动，强度维持或略有增强，25日后将转向东北方向移动，逐渐向广西东南部至广东雷州半岛西侧一带沿海靠近。
二 | 
今年第20号台风“简拉维”今天上午11点由热带低压加强为热带风暴级，其中心已于中午12点30分在福建省泉州市台商投资区张坂镇沿海登陆，登陆时中心附近最大风力有8级(18米/秒)，中心最低气压为998百帕。
三 | 登陆后强度再次减弱为热带低压，下午5点钟其中心位于福建省莆田市仙游县境内，北纬25.3度，东经118.7度，中心附近最大风力7级(14米/秒)，中心最低气压为999百帕。 预计，“简拉维”减弱后的热带低压将以每小时15公里左右的速度向西北方向移动，强度继续减弱。
另外，今年第18号台风“沙德尔”(超强台风级)的中心今天下午5点钟位于台湾省台北市偏东方向约1270公里的西北太平洋洋面上，就是北纬24.7度，东经134.1度，中心附近最大风力16级(52米/秒)，中心最低气压为935百帕，七级风圈半径350-400公里，十级风圈半径120-150公里，十二级风圈半径50-60公里。
四 | 预计，“沙德尔”将以每小时20-25公里的速度向西偏北方向移动，强度变化不大，26日进入东海，并逐渐向浙闽沿海靠近。
大风预报：8月24日20时至25日20时，北部湾、南海大部、巴士海峡、台湾海峡、台湾以东洋面、东海东部和西南部、钓鱼岛附近海域以及福建沿海、台湾岛沿海、广西沿海、广东雷州半岛西侧沿海、海南岛沿海将有6-8级大风、阵风9-10级，其中北部湾部分海域和东海东部部分海域的风力有9-10级、阵风11-12级。
降雨预报：8月24日20时至25日20时，浙江东南部、福建、台湾岛、广东北部、海南岛西部、广西东北部、江西南部、湖南南部和西部、贵州中北部等地有大雨或暴雨，其中，浙江东南部、福建东部、台湾岛、海南岛西部、湖南南部、贵州北部等地部分地区有大暴雨，福建东部局地特大暴雨(250-350毫米)。
暴雨预警
中央气象台8月24日18时继续发布暴雨黄色预警：预计，8月24日20时至25日20时，浙江东南部、福建、台湾岛、广东北部、海南岛西部、广西东北部、江西南部、湖南南部和西部、贵州中北部、云南西部以及内蒙古西部、山西北部、河北中部、北京西部和南部、天津中南部、黑龙江西北部和南部、甘肃中部、青海南部和东北部、西藏东南部等地有大雨或暴雨，其中，浙江东南部、福建东部、台湾岛、海南岛西部、湖南南部、贵州北部、内蒙古西部、黑龙江西北部等地部分地区有大暴雨，福建东部局地特大暴雨(250～350毫米)。上述部分地区伴有短时强降水(最大小时降雨量40～70毫米，局地可超过80毫米)，局地有雷暴大风等强对流天气。
五 | 
强对流天气预警
中央气象台8月24日18时继续发布强对流天气蓝色预警：预计8月24日20时至25日20时，东北地区中北部、华北东南部、江南西北部和东部、华南沿海等地的部分地区将有8级以上雷暴大风或冰雹天气，其中，黑龙江南部、吉林中部、辽宁北部、河北东南部、天津南部等地的部分地区将有10级以上雷暴大风，最大风力可达11级以上，局地不排除出现龙卷的可能性。
六 | 东北地区中北部、华北、江南西部和南部、西南地区东部和南部、华南等地的部分地区将有小时雨量大于20毫米的短时强降水天气，其中，河北中部、北京东南部、天津西部、江西南部、福建东部、广西东北部、广东中北部等地的部分地区小时雨量大于50毫米，最大可达80毫米以上。
山洪灾害气象预警
水利部和中国气象局18时联合发布红色山洪灾害气象预警：预计，8月24日20时至25日20时，内蒙古西部、黑龙江北部、福建东部等地部分地区发生山洪灾害可能性大(橙色预警)，其中，福建东部局地发生山洪灾害可能性很大(红色预警)。其他地区也可能因局地短历时强降水引发山洪灾害，请各地注意做好实时监测、防汛预警和转移避险等防范工作。
地质灾害气象风险预警
自然资源部与中国气象局8月24日18时联合发布橙色地质灾害气象风险预警：预计，8月24日20时至25日20时，辽宁东部、浙江东南部、福建东部和南部、广东东部和中北部、广西南部、云南西部、西藏东南部等地部分地区发生地质灾害的气象风险较高(黄色预警)，其中，浙江东南部、福建东部等地部分地区发生地质灾害的气象风险高(橙色预警)。
各级政府及有关部门按照应急预案做好地质灾害防御工作。请社会公众及时关注地质灾害气象风险预警信息，谨慎前往地质灾害预警区域。 橙色预警区内高风险隐患点和风险区受威胁人员请根据当地防灾部门组织立即撤离前往附近避险安置点，临坡临崖临沟临水人员根据撤离信号及时撤离前往附近避险安置点;
黄色预警区内人员，请随时关注预警信息变化，注意附近警示标志，避免在沟谷、斜坡、陡崖(坎)等高风险地带逗留。 (来源：中国天气网)。
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